Sunday, 8 May 2011

WOW what a days punting!!!

I am sure Ron wouldn't mind me showing you this...what a set of results.


Thank you to those that joined the ever growing Post Racing membership last night. It is much appreciated. If I ever use words you don't understand, or suggest punting methods that have you scratching your head, please don't hesitate in contacting me for clarification. You will find advice in my Idiots Guide on my website (no offence!), that should clear up the majority of things.

I had an amazing day yesterday. It was incredibly busy at this end due to he volume of racing and at times it was a bit like spinning plates but those that stayed up produced the goods for me.

For those that did not get involved in Horses for Causes this is what happened.

ASCOT 2-50

OCEANWAY....+23
SOORAAH....+13....2ND 10/1
FRANCES STUART....+10
BEA REMEMBERED....+2
LAW OF THE RANGE....+/-0....WON 12/1
ENTITLED....+/-0

ADVICE - I'm not a fan of three year olds taking on older horses at this time of the season and, for that reason alone, I'll drop OCEANWAY. Imight end up looking a twonk come 2-55pm but that would not be the first time this season!
I'm favouring low drawn so, FRANCES STUART and LAW OF THE RANGE are the mainstay of my dutch and with high muchly prefered to middle, I'll pop SOORAH into that bet.
No place for ENTITLED, who I feel is priced on where she copmes from, as opposed to what she has achieved so far.
My 20/80 is FRANCES STUART and I'll work with this trio for my combo exotics.

RESULT - Superb! I landed my dutch, the 154/1 Exacta and the 120/1 CSF.

ASCOT 3-25

EXCELLENT GUEST....+28
LAYLA'S HERO....+23
RULESN'REGULATIONS....+18
SHAMANDAR....+15
ADVANCED....+10
GOLDEN DESERT....+8

ADVICE - I believe low drawn horses are best here but that makes this very tricky for me. I have just two horses in my top six so drawn...EXCELLENT GUEST....my 20/80....and SHAMANDAR, who looked tasty at two but who has not seen a track for 582 days. They will make up two of my four horse dutch, with two drawn high, just in case something funky happens. RULESN'REGULATIONS and GOLDEN DESERT from my six are priced to play and come into that bet.
For combo exotics I myself will be looking to play those two drawn low permed with those drawn high, to keep those bets down.

In conclusion...a dutch EXCELLENT GUEST, SHAMANDAR, RULESN'REGULATIONS and GOLDEN DESERT, a 20/80 EXCELLENT GUEST and exotics as described above.

RESULT - Called the draw spot on as five of the first six home were all drawn in a single number draw. Unfortunately I didn't find HAWKEYETHENOO, who I had suggested only last week had been a very unlucky loser on his last run. Watch out for SHAMANDAR though, he was finishing this race off well after that long absence and will win races this term.

ASCOT 4-35

BLISSFUL MOMENT....+11....2ND 7/1 > 11/2
ZUIDER ZEE....-3....4TH 11/1 > 8/1
MISTER ANGRY....-3
UDABAA....-8....3RD 4/1
DANSILI DANCER....-9
LICENCE TO TILL....-11

ADVICE - A decent 20/80 BLISSFUL MOMENT, a top three dutch and combo exotics. If ZUIDER ZEE comes out because they are unhappy with the underfoot conditions then UDABAA comes into that bet and I'd not be sorry to see that happen.

RESULT - The ratings were superb here...unfortunately we caught a tarter in ROCK A DOODLE, which I certainly didn't see coming. My top rated looked the winner until that thing zipped through and we got done 3/4 of a length.

ASCOT 5-10

CHIEFDOM PRINCE....+26
STRIKING SPIRIT....+21
BARONS SPY....+13
JOE PACKET....+9
DEACON BLUES....+7
SON OF THE CAT....+/-0

ADVICE - Cracking good race to finish the card off. My top three fulfill all the criteria I've used to put these figures together and I'll play them exactly as they have fallen...top three dutch, a 20/80 CHIEFDOM PRINCE and combo exotics.

RESULT - STRIKING SPIRIT ran a blinder for me but simply ran out of legs, finishing a 2 3/4 length 5th.

LINGFIELD 2-10

PYRRHA....+6....3RD 12/1
FLAMBEAU....+/-0....2ND 8/11
DEVER DREAM....-11
GREEN DANDY....-13
TROPICAL PARADISE....-22
PERFECT TRIBUTE....-26

ADVICE - Again, I'm happy to dutch my top two, have a 20/80 PYRRHA and set after the exotics. Top three for tricast purposes.

RESULT - My top pair ran crackers for me but those Cox horses are flying right now and that did for us. Nice return of the 20/80 PYRRHA though.

LINGFIELD 4-55

BUXTON....+25
WILFRED PICKLES....+18
SPACE STATION....+12
RED YARN....+8
LEADENHALL LASS....-3
SLUGGER O'TOOLE....-7

HAYDOCK 2-00

FOLLY BRIDGE....+24
DUNELIGHT....+22
LOVELACE....+20
BEACON LODGE....-1
KAKATOSI....8
DUFF....-9

This race could fall apart and resemble a Brian Rix farce as rated horses 2 and 4 could be withdrawn if their trainers are not satisfied the going will suit so, until we know, I'll keep my powder dry.
If the status quo remains then I'll go with my top three...dutch, a 20/80 FOLLY BRIDGE and combos.

HAYDOCK 5-20

ONYX OF ARABIA....+8....2ND 25/1
LORD RAGLAN....+7....NR
TARTAN GUNNA....-6
BOURNE....-14....WON 5/6 > 8/11
LEADER OF THE BAND....-19
AZIMUTH....-24

ADVICE - Not a race that gives me a good feel at all. I'll run up my October Rules flag here, I think....top three dutch, 20/80 ONYX OF ARABIA and exotics, to my minimum stakes.

RESULT - Close to a whopping great winner here but what came back off my "80" put a smile on my face, that's for sure! With LORD RAGLAN out I included BOURNE in my bets and somehow managed to pot a 19/1 Exacta and a half decent 26/1 CSF.

NOTTINGHAM 1-50

ATLANTIC BEACH....-9
YURITUNI....-10
BLACK BACCARA....-10
SECRET VENUE....-14
SELECT COMMITTEE....-17
ABSA LUTTE....-26

Low grade and so, low stakes. Top three dutch for me with a 20/80 ATLANTIC BEACH. Combo exotics will be looked at and if the dividends look worth the risk, I'll sort something out.

NOTTINGHAM 2-55

HALLSTATT....-25....2ND 9/4
BOLLIN GRETA....-29....WON 6/1
DAYLAMI DREAMS....-30
SHERNANDO....-34
WILD DESERT....-35
EMRANI....-40

ADVICE - Awful race. Top two dutch, straight win bet HALLSTATT and a reverse exacta/CSF.

RESULT - Awful race indeed but seriously pleased with my reading of it! Dutch, 20/1 Exacta and a nice 18/1 CSF all banked.

NOTTINGHAM 3-30

POPPY SEED....+17....3RD 33/1 > 28/1
KHOR SEED....+13....2ND 11/4
TALLAHASSE....+12
DUBAI MEDIA....+9....5TH 20/1 > 10/1
CAPERCAILLIE....+2....18/1 > 16/1
BOUNTY BOX....+/-0....WON 3/1

ADVICE - Low drawn will struggle here, me thinks. Rated horses 1, 2 and 3 will do for my dutch, I'll go 20/80 POPPY SEED and get after those exotics again, too.

RESULT - Called gthe draw spot on, nothing below five in the first five past the winning post. How close again to a huge priced top rated winner, too! POPPY SEED ran a blinder for me and again, the return of my "80" had me beaming.

THIRSK 6-30

RIVER FALCON....+19....WON 18/1 > 16/1
ACE OF SPIES....+13
MULLGLEN....+12
SEA ROVER....+12
CHOSEN ONE....+10
SIR NOD....+7

ADVICE - Low drawn will be dropped from my bets here so, rated horses 3 and 5 are the main selections for my dutch, high being my preferred. RIVER FALCON comes in to that bet as middle looks ok-ish and I'll make MULLGLEN my 20/80. Combo exotics the same three.
I'm acutely aware that my favourite trainer of handicappers, Ruth Carr, is on fire right now and if you fancy CHOSEN ONE, go with it because everything looks good tonight.

RESULT - Having had so many big priced ones go close during the afternoon, this was nice! My dutch landed so, profit banked.

THIRSK 7-00

GEORGE ADAMSON....+5....WON 7/1
DZESMIN....-8
MANEKI NEKO....-12....3RD 14/1
THE CAPED CRUSADER....-21
PENANGDOUBLE O ONE....-22
GREEN LIGHTNING....-23

ADVICE - My top three look suitable for all bets in this event. Dutch, a 20/80 my top rated and combo exotics....they are my bets.

RESULT - Like bloody buses sometimes, aren't they! A superb top rated winner and a nice 20/80 and dutch secured but just a neck away from yet another seriously nice Exacta/CSF too.

THIRSK 7-30

EMERALDS SPIRIT....+12
LEGAL LEGACY....+6
RAVI RIVER....+5
OUR BOY BARRINGTON....+3
MUJAADEL....-5
MORE THAN MANY....-8

Low drawn looked shackled here and I'm much favouring middle over high.

Rated horses 3, 4 and 5 are my preferred here. Dutch, a 20/80 RAVI RIVER and combo exotics the same three.

THIRSK 8-30

MY FLAME....+13
SILLY GILLY....+7....2ND 14/1
FORTUNATE BID....-6
BECKERMET....-7
THINKING....-12
MAXI MOO....-16

ADVICE - I want low drawn running for me here....middle at a pinch so, a 20/80 SILLY GILLY will be played together with a dutch rated horses 2, 3 and 5 with combo exotics the same three.

RESULT - A few days ago I rated a race in which DHHAMAAN was the suggested 20/80 but, it was the day we lost one of the best trainers of handicappers I've ever known, David Chapman, Ruth Carr's Grandad, which led to her withdrawing all of her horses that day. A mental note was made as everything indicated that horse was "ready". He was a genius and his grandaughter has inherited his skill of getting these horses to do a job. When I first looked at this race I hoped it would top my figures again but, no such luck I'm afraid. I wore a wry smile as my suggested 20/80 failed by a head to get by that one and I have missed a 25/1 winner. That's life and I'll get over it but, what a trainer this lady is!

WARWICK 5-45

BERMONDSEY BOB....-2
MEMPHIS MAN....-6
VOLITO....-8
VALENTINO SWING....-10
WELCOME APPROACH....-10
BOLDINOR....-10

I'm thinking high drawn will have a bit of work to do here and I much prefer low so, a dutch MEMPHIS MAN, VOLITO and WELCOME APPROACH, a 20/80 MEMPHIS MAN and combo exotics.

WARWICK 8-15

MANDHOOMA....+8
SILVER WIND....-9
LORD OF THE DANCE....-16
SIR BRUNO....-20
NEEDWOOD RIDGE....-24
KINGSWINFORD....-26

I will plump for my top three here, dutch, 20/80 the Hiatt mare and combo exotics. Hopefully we finish with a bang!

OF INTEREST

BAISSE (Warwick 7-15) - straight win - WON 5/4
BATED BREATHE (Haydock 4-10) - straight win
- WON 9/4

I have to be extremely pleased with everything that happened yesterday and know for sure that my figures are doing their job....I just have to put the right bets together once I have compiled them.The "OF INTEREST" section is flying right now, too and I will be putting together a little piece showing exactly how well that part of my punting is getting along.

TODAY

No racing on the mainland for me to look at, which seems daft if you ask me. I have rated the last race at Leopardstown though and this is how that comes out....

LEOPARDSTOWN 5-15

SKYWAY....+13
DUC DE SAVOIE....+12
SIX OF HEARTS....+3
SIMLA SUNSET....+2
CORNAKILL....+1
TOUFAN EXPRESS....+1

Two clear on my numbers and I will be happy to play that pair dutched. I'd be thinking, on probable draw bias, that DUC DE SAVOIE is the one to concentrate on but, the going is an issue for me, which stops me from getting overly confident in one over the other. The going is perfect for SKYWAY but that nine draw has me wincing.
SIX OF HEARTS looks nailed on to run a biggie but I'm put off by the 11 draw....not insurmountable but, tough. Of the others I prefer TOUFAN EXPRESS, who is a huge price but has a nice draw and will go on the good to firm.

I'll be dutching my top pair, going 2 x 20/80's and bringing in TOUFAN EXPRESS for combo exotics.

OF INTEREST

SUBLIME TALENT (Leoparstown 3-45) - straight win

Have a great day and see you all tomorrow

Kindest regards

Ron

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