Showing posts with label Betfair. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Betfair. Show all posts

Monday, 14 February 2011

Immediate Review

I don't want to be alarmist, but a review of recent BTTS is required, I may as well not have bet February at all as we have only made 1.5 Points profit, so what is happening and what has changed?

When I first started I was worried that introducing Top Leagues was going to be detrimental to the system as the quality of defence and goal keeper in particular are so much higher than the lower leagues.

Although this was not apparent in the testing of the Premiership, we have had a decent run and now things seem to have changed.

I think I need to go back to the beginning and ensure that we go for the best performing bets and revert to what works best.

With that in mind I am pulling Premiership and Championship games for the time being and concentrating on English Leagues One & Two and the Blue Square Premiership.

This will be a problem for those who only bet on Betfair as they do not have a BTTS market for many of the lower league games.

I would suggest that anyone who seriously wants to make money from these bets looks at the value post I did recently and get some money in the main bookies, Blue Square, Bet365 and William Hill should cover the best prices most often. If you could also have something in Coral and Totesport then I would say you were well covered for all the up coming BTTS bets.

We will have more than 6 bets on Tuesday so make sure you have signed up to the free mailing list as I will be sending the selections out this evening, although don't worry if you don't sign up, the selections will appear on this blog at 10am.

Have a great day.

Monday, 7 February 2011

How do I maximise my profits?

There is a debate about using traditional high street bookmakers, online bookmakers and the betting exchanges to place bets. I personally use all 3, with the high street bookmakers a distant 3rd in my choices.

I have accounts with most online bookmakers and with both Betfair and Betdaq betting exchanges so that on any bet I choose to make I can get the best value for it.

Now value is a subject that requires little introduction if you have been betting on sports for a while, but a brief summary is always interesting for the new punter.

Imagine you are going to flip a coin and want to make a profit, you are using a standard coin and would expect there to be a 50/50 split in heads and tails. Now there may be streaks of heads or tails, but over 1000 or 10000 spins the outcome will be very close to 50/50. Imagine for a second that a bookmaker will allow 2.1 on heads and 1.9 on tails for a minute, which bet are you going to take?

If you answered tails, then please email me and I will set up the bet for you at a location of your choice and I will even provide coffee.

So a simple idea tells us that the value is on the coin landing heads up meaning that over the course of the bet I am making 0.10 points of value as statistically this is an even money bet.

So where do we go from here? Well lets look at a BTTS example seeing as that's what we do here.


I have looked for a game that has a market for BTTS playing today and found the Johnstones Paint trophy match between Exeter and Brentford. If you look at the odds available you will notice the YES bet is being offered at 1.80 and 1.62 at the online bookies and Betfair has the market currently available to back YES at 1.76

From that we can work out very quickly that a £10 bet would return £8 profit from the top bookie and £6.20 from Bwin, an 18% difference, now what one are you going to take?

So what about Betfair? well they will often have best prices on markets so well worth a look, but in this case 1.76 after 5% commission charge works out at 1.672 or £6.72 back for our winning £10 bet.

So far on this BTTS blog, I have managed to get best price on every bet I have placed and will continue to take best price. Imagine taking 18% less per bet every time, never you would say, but are there reasons for doing it?

I don't have an account, I don't have any money in that one, I have been with them for years, I only trust so and so, I hate exchanges, etc, etc...

I suggest you look at what you are trying to achieve with your betting, If you want to make a profit then the thin margins we are working with must not be made any smaller. Make a vow to sort this out, only take best price, repeat after me, I will only take best price.

So far over the course of the BTTS bets I have found Blue Square to be the most consistent bookmaker for pricing up BTTS markets and have made more than half of my bets with them. If you are going to open an account then please check out the BetClub link, you will find various ways of making risk free money from bookmaker free bets and offers, add value to your BTTS bets now.